Will History Repeat Itself? Reflection of the 2025 German Federal Election

The recent German election has shaken the foundations of the political establishment, delivering a stark message about the shifting sands of European politics. While Friedrich Merz and the CDU celebrate their win, the undeniable surge of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) casts a long shadow. More than just an electoral shock, it raises pressing questions about Germany’s future, the rising tide of populism, and the stability of the global order.

The AfD’s Alarming Ascent

For years, mainstream parties have brushed aside the AfD as a fringe movement. That assumption no longer holds. With over 20% of the vote, the AfD is now the second-largest party in the Bundestag—a reality that demands serious political introspection.

Several factors have fuelled this surge. Immigration has long been a political fault line in Germany. The AfD has masterfully leveraged concerns about irregular migration and economic hardship, painting itself as the only party willing to take drastic action. In a social media age where fear spreads faster than facts, this narrative has proven highly effective.

Traditional media outlets have often dismissed the AfD, but they have instead built an audience where it matters: TikTok and YouTube. Their ability to bypass conventional channels and engage directly with younger voters has given them an edge that legacy parties have failed to counter.

One of the most striking shifts is the AfD’s appeal to young men. In a political climate where mainstream parties focus heavily on progressive social policies, the AfD has positioned itself as the only party addressing concerns around masculinity, traditional values, and national identity.

The AfD's stronghold remains in the former East Germany, where economic stagnation and frustration with Berlin’s political elite run deep. This division is not new, but the election results confirm it is widening, not healing.

AfD leaders insist they are not racist or anti-immigrant—only opposed to illegal migration and committed to integrating newcomers into German culture. Yet their hardline stance, including calls for immediate deportations of those without legal status, suggests a far more uncompromising reality. Whether their rise is a short-term reaction or a permanent feature of Germany’s political landscape remains to be seen.

Merz backed into a corner

Friedrich Merz may have won the election, but his victory is far from triumphant. If anything, it presents a near-impossible balancing act.

Merz has vowed to maintain a “firewall” between the CDU and the AfD, refusing any coalition or cooperation. But at the same time, he must address the frustrations that propelled the AfD’s rise. How he handles this paradox will define his chancellorship.

To form a government, Merz will likely have to negotiate with the Social Democrats (SPD), a party who are traditionally his ideological opposites. Previous CDU-SPD coalitions have been marked by internal deadlock and public discontent. If history repeats itself, voter frustration will only deepen.

The country’s economic model, long dependent on manufacturing exports and cheap energy, is under immense strain. Rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and increasing competition from China present structural challenges that cannot be fixed by minor tax cuts or deregulation alone.

Germany’s role in global affairs is shifting. Merz himself has warned that Washington’s interest in European security is waning. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia continue to escalate. Germany must decide whether to take a more assertive role in European defense or continue to rely on an increasingly uncertain NATO alliance.

MAGA politics comes to Europe

Though Washington’s official stance on the German election remained neutral, the same cannot be said for some of its most prominent political and business figures. Elon Musk, JD Vance, and a cohort of right-wing U.S. influencers actively championed the AfD, amplifying its message to a global audience and providing them with an international platform far beyond what they could have achieved alone.

While foreign involvement in elections is nothing new, this is a different breed of interference—less about state actors manipulating outcomes and more about a network of ideologically aligned figures using digital influence to shift political momentum. Germany’s democratic system remains intact, but the AfD’s rise has undoubtedly been buoyed by a level of external amplification that was nearly impossible a decade ago.

A World in Disorder?

Germany’s election is not just a domestic event; it is a bellwether for the direction of European and global politics. The AfD’s success mirrors the broader populist wave sweeping across Europe. Disillusionment with traditional parties, economic insecurity, and migration anxieties are fueling the rise of nationalist movements, challenging the post-war liberal order. The traditional Franco-German alliance, which has long driven European integration, now looks fragile. With both nations facing internal struggles, the EU risks losing its most vital engine of leadership.Germany has long been criticized for underfunding its military commitments. As geopolitical tensions rise, Merz must confront difficult choices about increasing defense spending and strengthening Germany’s role within NATO.

Conclusion

This election is a warning. Addressing the legitimate concerns that have fueled the AfD’s rise is essential—but so is defending the values of democracy, tolerance, and international cooperation. The next few years will test whether Germany can navigate these turbulent times without losing its political soul.

Germany stands at a crossroads. If Merz and the CDU fail to deliver meaningful economic and political solutions, the AfD’s influence will only grow. And with it, Germany’s role as a stabilizing force in Europe may be in jeopardy.

The stakes have never been higher.