A very bureaucratic regicide

Knives are out for Keir Starmer - but his opponents need to get their paperwork in order if they want to topple his government.

The week following the May local elections was always going to be challenging for Starmer. It was known that the results would be damning long before a ballot was cast, and many around Westminster saw this as the clear juncture where Starmer would vacate No 10 after he survived the Mandelson crisis.

The chaos that has followed has been predictable. The 80+ MPs calling for his resignation was reminiscent of the final days of Boris. He has weathered the storm for now, but it is far from over. The contenders for the crown are positioning themselves, with Wes Streeting set to issue a leadership challenge as early as tomorrow.

The question is - why hasn't he already been deposed? As we saw in the Tory years, hopping from Cameron to May to Johnson to Truss to Sunak took very little. Perhaps fittingly for a man who, at the height of his powers, was still described as dull, it is the red tape of Labour Party procedure that is providing safe harbour for Starmer. So, how could he be toppled, and how is it likely to happen?

How Labour leadership works

The process for selecting a new Labour leader is typically set in motion by the resignation of the sitting leader, though a contest can equally be triggered if 20% of Labour MPs nominate a challenger. Where the leader does not resign, they are automatically placed on the ballot alongside any challengers, who must independently meet the same 20% nomination threshold.

Should a vacancy arise, the Deputy Leader serves as interim leader while the National Executive Committee (NEC) assumes oversight of the process and determines the specific timeline. To appear on the ballot, a candidate must secure nominations from 20% of Labour MPs and demonstrate broader party support by obtaining endorsements from either 5% of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) or three affiliates (including at least two unions) collectively representing 5% of affiliated members.

The final decision rests with the membership through a one-member-one-vote preferential ballot, distributed to all party members and eligible affiliated supporters. A candidate wins outright by receiving 50% of first-preference votes. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed according to subsequent preferences, a process that continues until a winner emerges.

If that all sounds overly complicated, it is supposed to be. Labour likes to avoid the tumult of leadership changes and has made it so that only someone with a significant amount of support from MPs can make a play, rather than simply relying on a large proportion wanting change. Any vote of no confidence would be ineffectual, as just saying that you don't want the current man (or woman) in the chair isn't enough.

So how will the Starmer premiership come to an end?

There are three clear options for how Starmer could go:

1. One of the key challengers in Parliament could get the explicit support of 81 MPs. Currently, it only seems likely that Wes Streeting is in a position to do this. Yesterday it seemed he might not have this, despite touting his level of support over the past few months. But with his resignation as Heath Secretary incoming, it seems this is the most likely scenario at this stage. The bigger question is whether Keir would keep his name in the running - given his stubborn nature, it is likely that he would.

2. Starmer could set out a timetable for his departure from office. This has been called for by supporters of Andy Burnham. As he is currently Mayor of Manchester and not a sitting MP, any leadership election triggered now would exclude him from putting his name forward, despite being the most popular choice to replace Keir among the general public. If Starmer laid out a timetable, this would give time for a by-election to take place through a Burnham loyalist falling on their sword and Andy stepping up to win. Note - this is not guaranteed, with strong gains by Reform in the Manchester area, so a coronation is not assured in a theoretical by-election.

3. Starmer could keep calm and carry on. Now, it is likely he still won't make it to the next election given the frequency of crises during his premiership, but it would give more time for candidates to position themselves. For example, Angela Rayner is waiting for her tax affairs to be settled before launching her own challenge, and a longer lead time could help that happen. A caveat here is that I think she may well be happy to come in behind Burnham, but that is not necessarily conventional wisdom. This option also allows a new candidate to emerge and stake their claim. I think many of the public wouldn't mind a newcomer taking on the mantle, given the lack of enthusiasm for the current options.

For now, we will need to wait and see. In some ways, Starmer is in the same position; his reign will come to an end, but it is unclear when, from what direction, and who will be wielding the knife.